2019年11月21日
香港人的不幸和無奈
上周香港出現的員警強攻中大、理大的場面，使人警覺香港恍然進入一個「準內戰」的狀態，更令香港人難過的，是我們眼睜睜看到一個本來好好的香港，在過去半年來硬是被林鄭及其一夥推向一條毀滅的邪路而無法制止。我們雖然知道原因，知道如何扭轉這局面，但我們無權去挽救自己的家園。從二月以來香港社會出現的「動盪」，說明我們很不幸地、很無奈地被迫「回歸」到一個專制極權的國家，而這個國家擁有全世界最龐大和最不善待民意，卻絕不介意使用暴力的專政機器。
在任何一個正常的社會，林鄭月娥犯下這麼嚴重的錯誤（這是她自己承認的），是肯定要問責下台的。但是，支持她的是全世界最大的極權國家，所以她就不必下台。無論你香港死、傷多少人，社會多麼撕裂，她仍然可以安枕無憂。這就是香港的悲哀、我們的不幸和無奈。
從二月開始，香港各界通過種種和平、理性、非暴力的方式，向林鄭解釋為什麼不可以魯莽地修訂《逃犯條例》。由於香港市民不是她的權力來源，她對大眾的好言相勸完全視若無睹，甚至充滿權力傲慢地把各方的意見均斥為「廢話」。既然和平、理性、非暴力的方式無法扭轉林鄭的錯誤，那麼很自然市民只好走勇武的道路了。所以，對局勢發展到今天警民雙方情緒嚴重失控、香港瀕臨「內戰」邊緣的這個危險的局面，我會首先譴責林鄭。
這裏我們就可以清楚看到專政制度的禍害：一，人民沒有權，無法用民意授權的和平方式把她趕下台，從而結束動亂。二，政制缺乏內置的糾錯機制，使林鄭的錯誤無法得到及時的糾正和制止。三，政治問題暴力解決，由於我們被併入一個專制的政權，而這個政權是習慣於以軍事暴力來解決政治問題（例如1989年出動20萬野戰軍來鎮壓和平示威的學生），所以我們也不可避免地受這種統治模式影響，以員警暴力來解決政治問題，結果只能做成暴力不斷升級惡化。這三個禍害，正正是所有極權國家所共有的問題，香港二月以來的教訓，就是提供了一個「教科書式」的近乎完美的典型範例來說明專制極權政治的禍害本質。
專制政權導致香港走向「內戰」邊緣的這個過程，可以分三階段來說明。
第一階段:從2019年2月至6月9日（魯莽修例）
這個階段犯錯誤的主要是林鄭個人。由於她沒有捍衞「兩制」的意識，以致她魯莽地拆除「兩制」之間的防火牆。而在這個過程中，由於權力傲慢，她完全沒有進行實質的諮詢工作。
這個階段犯錯的還有林鄭的團隊（行政會成員及內閣）。內閣裏面保安司長（修例草案的草擬者）和律政司長（修例草案的把關者）要負主要責，而行政會議成員未能及時反映社會意見及勸服林鄭，因而也要負上協同者的責任。
所有建制派議員（包括立法會及區議會內建制派的議員），他們在各級議會盲目撐林鄭，不但未能起到議會應有的制衡作用，反而使林鄭因為擁有足夠票數便毫無顧忌的往錯誤方向滑下去。
建制派團體（各種親共社團）在中共的指揮棒下盲目發動群眾撐林鄭，使她可以振振有詞地自以為社會上很多聲音支援她。
在此階段香港各界人士分別從自己的專業角度，採用各種方式（聲明、研討會、連署、邀請官員對話等）各盡所能試圖勸服林鄭不要魯莽行事，或暫緩等待更詳細的諮詢後方修例均不獲正視。民間被迫發起多次和平理性非暴力的示威遊行，和平示威人數先是十萬級，繼而是百萬級，都無法制止一個沒有民意授權的政府魯莽立法。
第二階段：從2019年6月12日至今（以暴力解決政治問題）
在此階段林鄭政府錯誤地企圖以員警暴力執法來解決由她一手造成的政治問題。這個政策不但把員警推向與市民為敵的危險局面，更使整個政府被警隊綁架，變成由警隊左右政府施政。林鄭在多次內部場合表明她要依靠警隊，因此不能打擊警隊士氣，這就實際上透露了她的施政自主權已經受警隊限制（例如無法進行獨立調查委員會）。在這種情況下，我們看到的是政府實質上容忍員警暴力、容忍在警隊配合下動用黑社會暴力（7.21事件）、容忍鄉勇團練暴力（例如福建社團）等非法武裝來參與鎮壓和平示威的群眾。更令人髮指的，是竟然違反《基本法》的規定，讓大陸武警介入（市民在多處示威場合都拍攝到操普通話的人喬裝成速龍部隊在指揮鎮壓群眾）。
在此階段，中共多次公開為員警暴力撐腰，特別是8.7深圳會議、10.1國慶之後，對警隊使用暴力給予高度的肯定，這就更使員警有恃無恐。
香港市民在6.12第一次警暴事件後合情合理地提出「五大訴求」來解決政治問題不果，被迫將示威遊行活動的暴力程度升級，於是雙方進入一個惡性循環。在當局暴力執法的驅使下，勇武派的暴力程度也相應提高，雙方都走向情緒失控的可怕境地。
第三階段：從2019年8月7日至今（錯誤分析、錯誤定性）
從8.7港澳辦中聯辦聯合深圳會議開始，中共就從幕後走到台前，不斷對香港局勢作出錯誤的分析和錯誤的定性。這就進一步激化矛盾。
由於中共的介入，本來僅僅是林鄭行政失誤的問題迅速惡化為極其複雜的政治問題，香港的抗爭活動被大陸歪曲為：
– 顏色革命、恐怖主義，通過香港顛覆大陸政權；
– 港獨勢力，意圖奪取香港管治權；
– 大陸劍指香港資本主義根本制度，必須予以改造
– 大陸劍指香港司法制度（普通法原則、外籍法官、三權分立），意圖改造之
– 大陸更謀劃重新直接管治香港（四中全會公布）
這些指控徒令局勢火上澆油，使香港的抗爭活動不可避免地把矛頭指向中共。面對中共嚴重歪曲香港市民的抗爭活動、意圖對香港實行社會主義式改造（特別是「改革」所謂「極端資本主義」和香港的普通法制度），必然會引起香港市民更激烈的反抗。在中共極強勢壓力下，香港市民的反抗活動也許會在一時間被壓服，但心存不滿的情緒最終將會藉其他事件爆發。
這個過程清晰地說明，專制政權是香港的終極禍根。它使我們無法按照正常的程式（和平、理性、非暴力、透明、公開、公平）來更換不稱職的領導人，以及化解政治運作中出現的錯誤。
Last week, the police officers in Hong Kong who attacked the University and the University of Hong Kong were alerted to Hong Kong’s sudden entry into a “pre-civil war” situation. What made Hong Kong people more sad was that in the past six months, we saw that Hong Kong, which used to be in a great state, was pushed by Carrie Lam and her team into a path of destruction and yet no one could stop it. Although we know the reason and know how to reverse this situation, we have no right to save our home. The “turmoil” in Hong Kong society since February shows that we are unfortunately and reluctantly forced to “return” to an authoritarian totalitarian country, which has the largest and most unpalatable public opinion in the world, and never mind the use of violent dictatorship machines.
In any normal society, Carrie Lam made such a serious mistake (this is what she admitted), and she must be accountable to step down. However, she is in the largest totalitarian country in the world, so she does not have to step down. No matter how many people you die in Hong Kong, how many people are hurt, and how tearing the society is, she can still rest easy. This is the sorrow of Hong Kong, our misfortune and helplessness.
Since February, all walks of life in Hong Kong have explained to Carrie Lam through various peaceful, rational and non-violent methods why they cannot rectify the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance recklessly. Since the people of Hong Kong are not her source of power, she has completely turned a blind eye to the public’s good words and even arrogantly again and again dismissed the opinions of all parties as “nonsense.” Since the peaceful, rational and non-violent ways cannot reverse Carrie Lam’s mistakes, it is natural that the citizens have to take the path of bravery. Therefore, I will first condemn Carrie Lam for the dangerous situation in which the situation has developed to the point where the police and the masses are seriously out of control and Hong Kong is on the verge of “civil war.”
Here we can clearly see the scourge of the dictatorship: First, the people have no right to oust her from the stage of peaceful means authorized by public opinion, thus ending the unrest. Second, the lack of a built-in error correction mechanism in the political system has made Carrie’ Lam’s mistakes unable to be corrected and stopped in time. Third, the political issue of violent resolution, because we are incorporated into an authoritarian regime that is accustomed to using military violence to solve political problems (such as the 1989 field of 200,000 field troops to suppress peaceful demonstrations), so we can not Avoiding the influence of this mode of ruling, the use of police and violence to solve political problems can only result in escalating violence and escalation. These three scourges are exactly the problems shared by all the totalitarian countries. The lesson from Hong Kong since February is to provide a “textbook-style” near-perfect classic example to illustrate the scourge of authoritarian totalitarian politics.
The process of authoritarian regimes leading Hong Kong to the edge of “civil war” can be explained in three stages.
The first stage: from February 2019 to June 9 (Recklessness)
The main mistake in this stage is Carrie Lam’s personal. Since she did not defend the “two systems” consciousness, she recklessly removed the firewall between the “two systems.” In the process, due to the arrogance of power, she did not conduct substantive consultation work at all.
At this stage, Lam’s team (the members of the Executive Council and the cabinet) made mistakes. The Secretary of Security (the drafter of the draft amendment) and the Secretary for Justice (the gatekeeper of the draft amendment) are mainly responsible, and the members of the Executive Council fail to reflect the views of the community and persuade Lam in a timely manner. The responsibility of the collaborators.
All the formed members of the Legislative Council (including Members of the Legislative Council and the District Council) have blindly supported Lam at all levels of the Council. Not only have they failed to play the necessary checks and balances in the Legislative Council, but they have given enough votes to Lam. I will slide down in the wrong direction without any scruples.
The formed faction groups (various pro-community associations) blindly launched the masses under the baton of the CCP to support the masses, so that she could revive the words and support her voice.
At this stage, people from all walks of life in Hong Kong use their own professional perspectives (declaration, seminars, co-ordination, invitation to officials, etc.) to try their best to persuade Lam not to act recklessly, or to suspend waiting for more detailed consultation. The amendments are not taken seriously. The people were forced to launch several peaceful, rational and non-violent demonstrations. The number of peaceful demonstrations was first 100,000, and then millions, and it was impossible to stop a reckless government without public opinion.
The second stage: from June 12, 2019 to the present (to solve political problems with violence)
At this stage, the Lam government mistakenly attempted to solve the political problems caused by her by using police and violence law enforcement. This policy not only pushed the police to the dangerous situation of being hostile to the public, but also caused the entire government to be abducted by the police and become a government governed by the police. Lam has shown that she has to rely on the police force on many internal occasions, so she cannot attack the morale of the police. This actually reveals that her autonomy in governance has been restricted by the police (for example, an independent investigation committee cannot be conducted). Under this circumstance, what we have seen is that the government has substantially tolerated police violence, tolerated the use of triad violence in cooperation with the police (7.21 incident), and tolerated illegal armed forces such as the Fujian community to participate in the suppression of peaceful demonstrations. The masses. What is even more horrifying is that it violated the provisions of the Basic Law and allowed the mainland armed police to intervene. (Citizens who filmed Mandarin in various demonstrations disguised as the Athlon Forces in command and suppress the masses).
At this stage, the CCP has repeatedly publicly supported the police and the police. In particular, after the 8.7 Shenzhen Conference and the 10.1 National Day, the police used the violence to give a high degree of certainty, which made the police even more fearful.
After the first police incident in 6.12, the Hong Kong people sensiblely put forward the “five major demands” to solve the political problems. They were forced to escalate the violence of the demonstrations, and the two sides entered a vicious circle. Driven by the violent law enforcement of the authorities, the level of violence of the brave martial arts has also increased accordingly, and both sides have gone to the terrible situation of emotional out of control.
The third stage: from August 7th, 2019 to the present (error analysis, error characterization)
Starting from the 8.7 Hong Kong and Macao Office of the United Nations Office of the United Nations and the Shenzhen Conference, the CCP has gone from behind the scenes to the stage, constantly making a wrong analysis and misidentification of the situation in Hong Kong. This further intensifies contradictions.
Due to the intervention of the CCP, the issue of Lam’s administrative mistakes has rapidly deteriorated into an extremely complicated political issue. Hong Kong’s protest activities have been distorted by the mainland as:
- Color revolution, terrorism, subversion of the mainland regime through Hong Kong;
- Hong Kong independence forces with the intent to seize Hong Kong’s governance;
- The mainland sword refers to the fundamental system of Hong Kong capitalism and must be reformed
- The mainland sword refers to the Hong Kong judicial system (general law principles, foreign judges, separation of powers), with the intention of reforming
- The mainland is planning to re-direct Hong Kong directly (promulgated by the Fourth Plenary Session)
These accusations have fueled the situation and made Hong Kong’s protest activities inevitably point the finger at the CCP. In the face of the CCP’s severe distortion of the Hong Kong people’s resistance activities and the intention to implement socialist transformation of Hong Kong (especially the “reform” and “extreme capitalism” and Hong Kong’s common law system), it will inevitably lead to more fierce resistance from the people of Hong Kong. Under the strong pressure of the CCP, the rebellious activities of the people of Hong Kong may be overwhelmed at a time, but the feelings of dissatisfaction will eventually erupt with other incidents.
This process clearly shows that authoritarian regimes are the ultimate bane of Hong Kong. It prevents us from replacing incompetent leaders in accordance with normal procedures (peaceful, rational, non-violent, transparent, open, fair) and defusing mistakes in political operations.